A comprehensive analysis of 50+ prediction markets tracking the US-Israel-Iran confrontation. Market-implied probabilities aggregated from over $150M in trading volume.
Six days after Iran's confirmed strike on Israel (March 10), markets have shifted significantly. Over $150M in total volume across 50+ active markets now points to an extended but finite conflict. Regime change probability nearly doubled to 40%, while military action is expected to continue through March (87%). The ceasefire timeline has pushed out, but resolution by year-end is now priced at 84%.
Military action is expected to continue through March (87%). US invasion of Iran before 2027 is now a coin flip at 51%, up sharply from 30%. The conflict has expanded beyond strikes into questions about regime change, ground operations, and Kurdish involvement.
Ceasefire probability softened to 57% by June 30 (down from 67%), but resolution by December climbed to 84%. Markets expect a leadership change before ceasefire (54% vs 46%). Trump announces end of operations: 72% by June.
Active prediction markets tracking military engagements, strikes, and ground operations. The confirmed March 10 Iran strike on Israel has shifted markets toward a prolonged operational phase.
Strong consensus: operations will not stop before month-end
View on Polymarket →Strike probabilities dropped sharply vs. March 10 — possible shift to diplomatic track
View on Polymarket →Jordan option likely resolved (not listed) — third-party strike risk diminished
View on Polymarket →Iran's main oil export terminal — loss would cripple regime revenue
View on Polymarket →Markets tracking ceasefire negotiations, diplomatic meetings, and conflict resolution. The ceasefire timeline has softened near-term but strengthened long-term. A key new signal: markets now price leadership change before ceasefire at 54%.
Massive shift from 17% — markets now see even odds of direct talks by summer
View on Polymarket →Markets expect regime destabilization to precede any peace deal
View on Polymarket →Strait remains severely disrupted — only 0-10 ships per day expected vs. normal 40+
The biggest shift in the past week: regime change probability nearly doubled. Markets now give 40% odds the Iranian regime falls by end of 2026 and expect the regime to survive US military strikes in the near term (73%) but face mounting internal pressure. Internet remains cut off.
Markets expect regime resilience against external strikes — internal collapse more likely than military overthrow
View on Polymarket →Nuclear deal probabilities have softened slightly since March 10. Near-term enrichment halt remains very unlikely (3% by March), but a deal before 2027 holds at 42%. Nuclear test/weapon probability stable at 14%.
Iran's March 10 strike on Israel is confirmed. Military action is 87% likely to continue through March. US invasion probability before 2027 surged to 51% (from 30%). Kharg Island — Iran's oil lifeline — faces 42% odds of falling by April.
Near-term ceasefire odds dropped (57% by June, down from 67%), but long-term resolution strengthened to 84% by December. The market narrative: this will be longer than initially expected, but not indefinite. Diplomatic meeting odds tripled to 50%.
Regime fall probability nearly doubled to 40% for 2026. Leadership change expected before ceasefire (54% vs 46%). But the regime is expected to survive military strikes (73%). The path to change is internal, not external bombing.
Nuclear deal odds dipped slightly to 42% (from 45%). Strike probabilities on nuclear facilities dropped sharply — Isfahan down 25pp to 62%, Fordow down 24pp to 19%. Markets may be pricing in that nuclear sites have already been hit or that the diplomatic angle is winning.
These probabilities are backed by over $150 million in total trading volume across 50+ active prediction markets on Polymarket. The largest markets — Iranian Regime Falls ($52M+), US-Iran Ceasefire ($30.8M), Iran Strikes Israel ($18.5M, resolved), US Forces Enter Iran ($14.9M) — have substantial liquidity, lending credibility to the price signals. Volume increased roughly 50% in six days.